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Is the ROI of a college eduction plummeting because of AI, outsourcing, and sky-high debt?
We don’t know the ceiling on artificial intelligence. Are we bottle-necked 1x, 2x, or 50+x from here? How long until we reach AGI? People go into six figures debt for degrees, including in traditionally high ROI fields like engineering, and still struggle to land a job. If things keeps scaling like this, we’ll have shift to UBI. At the very least, we may be breaking away from STEM dominance (sorry to say as someone who feels like they’re only good at learning science and math). I think different skills will becoming more valuable, and they’ll be hands-on trades and skills not taught in schools. If you were college-aged at this time, would you go?
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Shelby’s Answer
Hello Cassandra, thank you for the thoughtful question. It is true that AI is a massive disruptive force, and its effects on the industry will slowly unfold over the next couple of decades. While I agree that UBI might be a necessary program in the future, I do not believe that AI causing mass unemployment will be a primary cause. We have managed to mimic certain aspects of intelligence, but self aware consciousness is well beyond our grasp, even using the entire internet as training and all the technical shortcuts we know about.
You pointed out that the job market is being squeezed right now, and that is true. However, while engineers are suffering as much as anyone, this only feels amplified since this career has been blessed with abundant career opportunities for so long. This is not necessarily a bad thing; I will posit that liberal arts and humanities have long suffered budget cuts to accomodate a growing push towards STEM for anybody willing. STEM not being the only option for people wanting to go to college and have a career making a stable salary is not necessarily negative. However, there are broader issues in the economy and society which are impacting these externally.
The biggest issue that you bring up is the price of tuition. It has broken far above the rise in wages, and student debt is a rising financial crisis in our country. I will tell you that I went to community college once my grant wore out, so I wouldn't graduate with six figures of debt. I also believe it is true that the knowledge is out there, and while universities provide exceptional lecturers that can spark an interest in subject you never knew about, it is also just as likely you can find a self education tool or resource that is just as impactful as the teacher you would have.
I do not believe AI will make engineers superfluous. In the old days engineers had to use draft tables and charts to calculate the propagation for fadio networks, by hand, using long difficult formulas. These days a program can calculate these things in seconds. Rather than replacing the engineers, it makes them more productive. Although it is true that some programming jobs can be done with low code tools, these tools also introduce fields like prompt engineering, and fields that would be impossible without automation. A lot of these jobs can be pivoted to, as long as you keep a focus on the long term trends in the industry.
At this point, I feel as though, as saturated as the market is with graduates, having a degree is still a priority, possibly a necessity to get good paying jobs in fields of interest. However, I don't want to confuse the issue with different variables, but I would advise being thoughtful about your choices, and try to think about your plans regardless of what happens. My education and career started out very rough, and it took me a long time to get to where I wanted to be, but if you remain flexible and continue to pursue the career you want, then sooner or later you are bound to find the opportunity you were waiting for.
You pointed out that the job market is being squeezed right now, and that is true. However, while engineers are suffering as much as anyone, this only feels amplified since this career has been blessed with abundant career opportunities for so long. This is not necessarily a bad thing; I will posit that liberal arts and humanities have long suffered budget cuts to accomodate a growing push towards STEM for anybody willing. STEM not being the only option for people wanting to go to college and have a career making a stable salary is not necessarily negative. However, there are broader issues in the economy and society which are impacting these externally.
The biggest issue that you bring up is the price of tuition. It has broken far above the rise in wages, and student debt is a rising financial crisis in our country. I will tell you that I went to community college once my grant wore out, so I wouldn't graduate with six figures of debt. I also believe it is true that the knowledge is out there, and while universities provide exceptional lecturers that can spark an interest in subject you never knew about, it is also just as likely you can find a self education tool or resource that is just as impactful as the teacher you would have.
I do not believe AI will make engineers superfluous. In the old days engineers had to use draft tables and charts to calculate the propagation for fadio networks, by hand, using long difficult formulas. These days a program can calculate these things in seconds. Rather than replacing the engineers, it makes them more productive. Although it is true that some programming jobs can be done with low code tools, these tools also introduce fields like prompt engineering, and fields that would be impossible without automation. A lot of these jobs can be pivoted to, as long as you keep a focus on the long term trends in the industry.
At this point, I feel as though, as saturated as the market is with graduates, having a degree is still a priority, possibly a necessity to get good paying jobs in fields of interest. However, I don't want to confuse the issue with different variables, but I would advise being thoughtful about your choices, and try to think about your plans regardless of what happens. My education and career started out very rough, and it took me a long time to get to where I wanted to be, but if you remain flexible and continue to pursue the career you want, then sooner or later you are bound to find the opportunity you were waiting for.
I appreciate this, thank you for the advice.
Cassandra
Updated
Dennis’s Answer
Hello Cassandra,
The first answer given demonstrates that there continues to be a role for skilled people in the technical arena. And, that you can become one of those people without incurring an insurmountable debt.
I searched "ROI" to find sites to answer your question. There are plenty. Choose one and put your own numbers into the formula (s).
Here's the trick....how do you compute what your future earnings might be?
See, it might be fairly easy to compute the costs involved to earn a degree. It is much more difficult to estimate your future earnings over the next three decades or so. But, you can make some assumptions.
Something else else to consider: the value of the mental challenge and growth you will experience: while earning a degree. You will be investing yourself and your time, which is worth even more than the money involved. This does not plug directly in to your ROI .computation, but it does have a big influence in your well-being over the long run.
So, as you contemplate whether to go to college or to learn a trade or whatever.....think about whether you will be happy in that situation over many years to come.
No matter what path you choose, you will be making an investment in your future. You, your family and your advisors can determine how much you should invest.
I wish you success in whatever you pursue, Cassandra!
The first answer given demonstrates that there continues to be a role for skilled people in the technical arena. And, that you can become one of those people without incurring an insurmountable debt.
I searched "ROI" to find sites to answer your question. There are plenty. Choose one and put your own numbers into the formula (s).
Here's the trick....how do you compute what your future earnings might be?
See, it might be fairly easy to compute the costs involved to earn a degree. It is much more difficult to estimate your future earnings over the next three decades or so. But, you can make some assumptions.
Something else else to consider: the value of the mental challenge and growth you will experience: while earning a degree. You will be investing yourself and your time, which is worth even more than the money involved. This does not plug directly in to your ROI .computation, but it does have a big influence in your well-being over the long run.
So, as you contemplate whether to go to college or to learn a trade or whatever.....think about whether you will be happy in that situation over many years to come.
No matter what path you choose, you will be making an investment in your future. You, your family and your advisors can determine how much you should invest.
I wish you success in whatever you pursue, Cassandra!
Updated
Daemion’s Answer
Great set of questions, Cassendra!
The responses above have done a fantastic job of tackling most of your queries. The one I'd like to focus on is, "If you were college-aged at this time, would you go?"
My answer is a resounding yes! If I were college-aged now, I would definitely go to college. I'd follow the same path I did 20 years ago by starting at a community college and then transferring to a state college or university. This way, I could get an excellent education without the burden of heavy debt.
I see higher education as a wonderful way to prepare for whatever comes next. You might not have all the answers for future challenges, but you'll have a sharper mind and the confidence to face them with optimism.
The responses above have done a fantastic job of tackling most of your queries. The one I'd like to focus on is, "If you were college-aged at this time, would you go?"
My answer is a resounding yes! If I were college-aged now, I would definitely go to college. I'd follow the same path I did 20 years ago by starting at a community college and then transferring to a state college or university. This way, I could get an excellent education without the burden of heavy debt.
I see higher education as a wonderful way to prepare for whatever comes next. You might not have all the answers for future challenges, but you'll have a sharper mind and the confidence to face them with optimism.